India’s real GDP projected to grow at 7 pc in FY23: NSO advance estimate

New Delhi, Jan 6 (Mayank Nigam) India’s real GDP (gross domestic product) is expected to grow at 7% during 2022-23 as compared to 8.7% in the previous fiscal, according to the First Advance Estimate released by National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday. “Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 157.60 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 147.36 lakh crore, released on 31st May, 2022,” the NSO said. “The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.0 per cent as compared to 8.7 per cent in 2021-22,” it further said. As per the official estimate, India’s nominal GDP or GDP at current prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 273.08 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 236.65 lakh crore, released on May 31, 2022. The growth in nominal GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 15.4% as compared to 19.5% in 2021-22. The First Advance Estimates of GDP, introduced in 2016-17, would serve as essential inputs to the Budget exercise.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman would present the Union Budget for 2023-24 on February 1. The upcoming Budget is expected to be the last full Budget of the Modi 2.0 government before the General Election in 2024. The First Advance Estimate shows that manufacturing sector output would decelerate to 1.6% in FY23 as compared to a growth of 9.9% in the previous fiscal. The “Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting” is estimated to grow at the fastest pace among other components of the GDP and register 13.7% growth in the current financial year as compared to 11.1% in 2021-22. The farm sector output is seen continuing the momentum in FY23 and record 3.5% growth as compared to 3% in the previous financial year. The World Bank last month upgraded India’s FY23 growth forecast to 6.9% from its earlier estimate of 6.5% and underlined its resilience and strong domestic demand. Commenting on NSO’s first advance estimate, Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services said that the projection is largely in line, albeit slightly lower than a 6.8% GDP expectations of RBI. “This implies estimated H2FY23 GDP growth would slow down to 4.5% from the highs of 9.7% in H1FY23, partly also helped by base effect. The advance estimates will have a short shelf life — mostly based on extrapolation of indicators available until November,” she said.