Bengaluru, July 9 (Representative) The political landscape in Karnataka is poised for potential turbulence as the Congress party navigates internal leadership changes. At the heart of this scenario lies a critical question: What role might the BJP play as it observes these shifts from the sidelines?The BJP’s interest in forming a government in Karnataka hinges on the practicality and feasibility of dividing the ruling Congress party. With 85 NDA MLAs, the BJP is tantalisingly close to the magic number required for a majority.However, achieving this goal by splitting Congress is a formidable task. The BJP’s experience in Maharashtra, where the inclusion of NCP’s Ajit Pawar and company into the NDA didn’t significantly alter their electoral fortunes, serves as a cautionary tale. Risking a similar maneuver in Karnataka could backfire.Dividing Congress is easier said than done. The BJP would need a substantial number of Congress MLAs to defect, a scenario fraught with political and ethical complexities. The Congress leadership, despite its perceived weaknesses, would likely rally to prevent such a split.
The case of Rajasthan offers a parallel, where Ashok Gehlot successfully thwarted Sachin Pilot’s ambitions, despite internal agreements and high command interventions. Gehlot’s steadfastness, coupled with the central leadership’s indecision, underscores the difficulty of engineering a split within the party.In Karnataka, the power struggle between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar mirrors the Gehlot-Pilot dynamic. Siddaramaiah’s reluctance to cede the Chief Minister’s seat to Shivakumar reflects his awareness of the Congress high command’s weakened position post-Lok Sabha elections. Shivakumar, despite his ambitions, lacks the overwhelming support of legislators needed to enforce a leadership change.For the BJP, the decision to attempt forming an alternative government in Karnataka requires careful calculation.
The potential rewards are significant, but so are the risks. Another misstep like Maharashtra could damage the party’s credibility and electoral prospects. Moreover, the BJP must weigh the implications of any move on its broader national strategy.Ultimately, the possibility of the BJP forming a government in Karnataka depends on its willingness to take a calculated risk. The party must navigate the complexities of internal Congress dynamics, the loyalty of legislators, and the broader electoral implications.Without a clear and decisive plan, the BJP might find itself entangled in a prolonged power struggle, akin to the one seen in Rajasthan. The next few months will reveal whether the BJP opts for bold action or strategic patience, shaping the future political narrative in Karnataka.