Jalandhar, Dec 27 (Bureau) “Uncertainity prevails about Covid becoming endemic in 2023 but it is unlikely that we will be able to completely eliminate it” said Dr Naresh Purohit , Visiting Professor at the Faridkot based Baba Farid University of Health Sciences, School of Public Health on Tuesday. It is harder to predict about this RNA virus becoming endemic in 2023 because it is a respiratory virus that tends to mutate, similar to other Influenza viruses, Voicing his concern on the recent resurgence of BF.7 Omicron variant in China, Acclaimed Epidemiologist Dr Purohit after virtually addressing a webinar on “Covid Scenario in 2023” organised by the Amritsar based Indian Institute of Management on Tuesday told UNI here that, “if multiple mutations change the viruses protein structure or its ability to attach to cells, it could give rise to new strains” he added. Dr Purohit explained that when a pandemic becomes endemic, it means that the disease is present in a particular community or globally, and there is enough immunity among the population to control outbreaks.
“Also, the infections can continue to affect vulnerable members of the community. While an endemic may not experience large outbreaks, it also means that it will not be completely eradicated,” he averred. Dr Purohit observed that Punjab and India as a whole are not experiencing an unusual surge as yet. However, severe cold weather and vulnerability of elderly with co-morbidities and declining immunity is providing an environment for omicron sub-variants to keep mutating, eventually by bypassing vaccine immunity. He pointed that there is intense cold wave presently in Punjab so there is high probability for circulation of respiratory pathogens in air. It is in one’s interest to be alert and cautious. “Modelling data from credible agencies of the west do not foresee any major Covid wave in Punjab in weeks ahead but models can go horribly wrong.” he added.
He averred that since the beginning of the pandemic, there have been close to 66 crore covid cases across the world, with over 4.4 crore in India. He pointed that China is witnessing an unprecedented increase in cases. In the last seven days, over 34 lakh people got fresh infection across the world. “India has been seeing a limited number of cases for the last many months with just over 1,000 cases in the last seven days. But in some countries, there has been an upward trend of cases. Japan has had over 2.5 million infections so far this month and South Korea 1.2 million,” he added. “Though the numbers of hospitalisations and deaths have remained low, infections have resurfaced at many places. It has been estimated that more than 60 per cent of China and 10 per cent of world’s population are likely to be infected in the next three months,” he said. Citing a recent study by researchers in Hong Kong, Dr Purohit averred that researchers had predicted that 684 people per million would die if China reopened without a mass vaccination booster campaign and other measures. “That would add up to a close to a million deaths over the course of the next few months” he said. Noted medic stated that a holistic assessment of our healthcare system is absolutely necessary.
“The Covid-19 pandemic in the past has exposed the sad neglect of our public sector medical and healthcare institutions, particularly in rural and suburban areas. These institutions need to be bolstered in terms of manpower and infrastructure. Special attention needs to be given to primary and community health centres. While the private sector has to some extent contributed to the healthcare sector in urban areas, its reach in rural and semi-urban areas is inadequate.” Experts in the webinar said the variants of Omicron circulating in China had a high transmissibility. BF.7 and XBB have been reported from India for a while but haven’t caused any outbreaks so far. For any variant to survive it has to demonstrate some immune escape, which is why these sub variants of Omicron have survived. “However, as a group, Omicron does not cause severe illness and most of the symptoms are those of the upper respiratory tract rather than the lower RT and the lungs,” they added. Experts, however, warned that new and more virulent variants could emerge anytime. They emphasised on genomic surveillance to stay on the lookout for emerging variants.