New Delhi, Apr 4 (Representative) Myanmar has been facing massive political instability since the February 2021 military coup which saw the democratically elected popular leader Aung San Suu Kyi initially being put under house arrest and then subsequently sentenced to five years in jail on corruption charges, after a secret trial. The West has been critical of the military’s human rights record especially for its act of executing political opponents and has imposed sanctions.Meanwhile things seem to be getting out of hand fast as regional militias have targeted Myanmar army personnel. As far as India is concerned the upheaval in the South East Asian neighbor not only hampers the ‘Act East policy’ but if the instability further intensifies then the possibility of massive refugee influx cannot be ruled out. Former Ambassador of India to Myanmar Rajiv Bhatia while speaking at a panel discussion titled ‘Myanmar Today two Years After the Military Coup’ recently hosted at the India International Centre (IIC) explained how serious the situation in Myanmar is “In the first year of the coup there were peaceful protests, by the second year there was a total disintegration as the protests were overtaken by the violent guys and the army and the opposition made it clear that it is terrorism. As of now things have become nasty there is a full scale civil war going on, the country is falling apart, Government’s writ is contested, the opposition cannot have its way and the country is seeking external help.” Amb Bhatia said that India’s ‘Act East’ policy, which is not only an important part of our Foreign policy but also key to the development in the north eastern states is in jeopardy due to the upheaval in Myanmar “Myanmar is an important pillar in India’s act east policy, the policy is in difficulty now due turmoil there, through Act East policy we hoped to connect North East India with the South East Asian nations through Myanmar this has been severely affected, mega projects are in a mess, the tri lateral highway project Kaladan project have been affected as there is no security there” Strategic analyst Dr. Udai Bhanu Singh while sharing his thoughts at the panel discussion explained how the situation in Maynmar could adversely affect India “In bordering Mizoram there has an been influx of refugees and the central Government has said that we cannot take these refugees, a notification in Manipur said that if any refugee takes refuge it has to be reported to the administration, so whatever is happening across the border is not a welcome thing for us. “Dr Singh delved on Myanmar’s present economic condition “Liberalisation that had started in the 2000’s stopped with the coup and benefits of liberalisation are no longer coming to Myanmar. Now Myanmar is moving towards self sufficiency centered in military owned enterprises.
At the time of the coup there were limits placed at how much money people could withdraw from ATM’s that inhibited economic activity especially investment into Myanmar, now all those sanctions that have been placed on Myanmar and the latest threat of stopping aviation fuel to the country by the US will further aggravate the problem this would also impact whatever nascent defense industry they have started.” Dr Singh explained the reasons for Myanmar’s closeness with China “it was China which Myanmar had to turn to during its long military rule when the west had totally boycotted and imposed sanctions on the country it procured both economic aid and military hardware from China. The west is again putting the same kind of approach of sanctions and boycott and they are again turning to China. Even when Aung San Suu Kyi was state councilor in January 2020 when Xi Jinping visited 30 important agreements were signed Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (KPSEZ) and Deep-sea port project was envisaged, earlier Myanmar and China had agreed on the Myanmar- China economic corridor which would be an important part of the BRI.” He felt that the elections, whenever these are held could not be expected to be free and fair “as far as emergency is concerned they have already gone beyond what is constitutionally valid, the constitution mandates emergency for a maximum of two years they have extended that to August. The military has said that they would hold elections in August this year, elections if at all they are held in August would not be free and fair it is also possible that the elections are not held in August but later in the year. So if the emergency period can be extended beyond what is constitutionally mandated elections being free and fair is a far cry. USDP, the military led party which had in the first elections held in 2010 come to the fore, again a same kind of scenario the military is trying to create where the USDP wins the elections in whatever way. There is some talk of not having first past the post kind of election, but a kind of election which will benefit the USDP if happens. Also the fact the military would be in power till the elections itself shows that they would have the upper hand.”