Bengaluru, Feb 12 (Representative) Boeing has presented an optimistic outlook for the Indian aviation sector, forecasting significant expansion in air traffic over the next two decades. The aerospace giant’s Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for India, unveiled at Aero India, anticipates a requirement of 2,835 new aircraft by 2043, primarily single-aisle planes, to cater to the country’s rapidly growing aviation market. This surge in demand is expected to generate nearly 129,000 jobs, including pilots, technicians, and cabin crew. Boeing attributes this growth to India’s strong economic trajectory, estimating that by 2031, India will become the world’s third-largest economy. With the aviation sector already contributing USD 54 billion to the economy and employing 7.7 million people, its expansion appears inevitable. Boeing’s projections rest on three core economic factors: a fourfold increase in GDP by 2050, rising disposable income, and job creation in the manufacturing sector. These elements collectively bolster air travel demand. Furthermore, Boeing underscores the role of infrastructure expansion in boosting air traffic. The opening of Goa’s second airport in December 2022 resulted in a 33 per cent rise in passenger traffic, reinforcing the belief that upcoming airports in Jewar and Navi Mumbai could double air traffic to Delhi and Mumbai. Additionally, 162 new airports are under development to complement the existing 138 operational ones. Another major factor is the shift from rail to air travel. Boeing asserts that passengers who experience air travel rarely revert to rail transport. If even two per cent of rail travellers switch to air travel, it could double air traffic in India.
Boeing also sees significant potential in air cargo, expecting the sector to double in the next 15-20 years. Given Boeing’s dominance in freighter aircraft, this growth is expected to benefit the company significantly. Despite its optimistic forecast, Boeing acknowledges key challenges that could impact sector growth. The high cost of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) in India, among the highest globally, is a major concern, making air travel expensive for passengers and financially burdensome for airlines. The collapse of several private airlines in the past two decades underscores this issue. Other obstacles include poor airport infrastructure and limited international routes for Indian carriers, placing them at a competitive disadvantage compared to global players. Boeing also highlights the need to examine India’s aviation growth in terms of per capita income and expenditure, rather than just GDP, to understand the true impact on consumer air travel. Additionally, merely building airports does not guarantee increased air travel. Several Tier-II city airports remain underutilised, as airlines avoid unprofitable routes. Boeing cites Agra as an example, where despite its status as a major tourist and industrial hub, air traffic remains minimal due to better rail and road connectivity. While Boeing’s projections offer an inspiring vision for India’s aviation future, the report also acknowledges the need for policy interventions and market adjustments to navigate potential hurdles. Sustainable growth in the sector will require strategic planning, cost regulation, and a keen understanding of passenger preferences. Optimism drives growth and investment, but a dose of realism ensures long-term success.