New Delhi, May 16 (Agency) Industry body Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) on Monday said it expects economic growth to be in the range of 7.4-8.2% in 2022-23 depending on global crude oil price trends. In an optimistic scenario considering oil prices at $ 90 per barrel, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise by 8.2% in the current financial year. In a business-as-usual scenario with oil being at $ 100 per barrel, the GDP could grow by 7.8%. In case the oil prices stay at $110 a barrel, the economy could expand by 7.4%.
“Global headwinds and inflation will have to be countered with robust policy reforms, both domestic and external sector reforms, to unlock the growth potential of the economy,” CII’s newly-elected President Sanjiv Bajaj said on Monday. Bajaj said that an immediate measure to moderate inflation could be to moderate taxes on fuel products which constitute a large share of the retail pump prices of petrol and diesel. Spelling out the vision for the economy, the CII President said that India has the potential to become a $ 40 trillion economy by the time it turns 100, in 2047, with milestones at $ 5 trillion by 2026-27 and $ 9 trillion by 2030-31.
Highlighting the sectoral drivers of growth, Bajaj elaborated that manufacturing and services will be the twin engines of growth. “The enabling policies of the government particularly the PLI (production-linked incentive) scheme are expected to push manufacturing sector’s contribution in GVA (gross value added) to 27% by FY48. Similarly, services, too, will witness its share rising from 53% to 55% in the terminal year. The contribution of exports to GDP must rise while the investment rate must be stepped up. Both government and industry must be equal partners in achieving this,” Bajaj said.