Putin believes doubling down will improve Ukraine outcome: CIA

Washington, May 8 (FN Agency) US CIA Director Bill Burns on Saturday said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has staked too much in the second phase of his war against Ukraine and believes that “doubling down” on military conflict is his best path. Speaking at a Financial Times event, he said, “He’s in a frame of mind in which he doesn’t believe he can afford to lose. I think he’s convinced right now that doubling down still will enable him to make progress. “His convictions about Ukraine and the reality of Russia’s capability to continue to grind away at Ukrainian resistance — I don’t know whether that’s been shaken yet.

So the stakes are quite high.” CNN quoted Burns as saying that it is in Putin’s mindset that makes the second phase of the offensive at least as risky — and maybe even riskier — than the first phase of the conflict. He said, “What I’ve seen, especially over the last decade, is him in a way stewing in a very combustible combination of grievance and ambition and insecurity all kind of wrapped together.” He further said that the risk of the war escalating into a nuclear conflict should not be underestimated during the second phase. “Given the kind of saber-rattling … we’ve heard from the Russian leadership, we can’t take lightly those possibilities.

At a moment when … the stakes are very high for Putin’s Russia and those risks at this second phase of the conflict are serious and should not be underestimated,” he pointed out. The CIA Director also raised the topic of Russia’s conflict in Ukraine affecting China’s calculations in terms of “how and when” with regard to taking control of Taiwan. Burns said, “Clearly the Chinese leadership is trying to look carefully about the lessons they should draw from Ukraine about their own ambitions in Taiwan. “I don’t think for a minute it’s eroded Xi’s determination over time to gain control over Taiwan but I think its something that’s affecting their calculation about how and when they go about doing that.”